Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence

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Phrase popularized by Carl Sagan, but conceived by David Hume.

References:
http://www.skepticwiki.org/wiki/index.php/%22Extraordinary_Claims_Require_Extraordinary_Proof%22
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hume

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Weapons of Influence

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References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Cialdini

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Argumentation Schemes and Fallacies

Fallacies are a subgroup of Argumentation Schemes. Argumentation Schemes are what are traditionally known as fallacies. Argumentation Schemes are only fallacies when used inappropriately. For example, the following argumentation schemes are valid in the appropriate context.
- Ad hominem, in a law trial when the witness is in the process of impeachment
- Appeal to Authority, when testimony from and expert witness is used
- Appeal to Pity, for circumstances, such as family or financial obligations, about the defendant that need to be considered
- Argument from Consequences, it is not a fallacy to argue that if you smoke you may get cancer.
- Affirming the consequent is how science works.

References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacies
The New Dialectic, Conversational Contexts of Argument by Douglas Walton.

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The Baloney Detection Kit

This is a stub for a description of the baloney detection kit

References:
http://www.xenu.net/archive/baloney_detection.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Demon-Haunted_World

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Ockham's Razor

This is a stub for an explanation of ockham's razor.

References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ockham%27s_razor

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The Scientific Method

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This is stub for a discussion on the scientific method.


-the disussion will go here-

EXAMPLE:
Lets say that you order a plate from a restaurant. After waiting for over an hour you begin to get frustrated that it is taking so long. Is your frustration justified or reasonable?

I say it is reasonable with a qualifier, and most of it depends on my presumptions, one more strongly justified than another.
A list of reasons in the order of justification strong to weak. In all cases my presumption would be the opposite.
- The staff have deliberately misled people about their ability to produce an egg/sausage skillet, for example, my presumption would be that they should not mislead people about their ability to produce an egg/sausage skillet.
- The staff are playing cards instead of producing the egg/sausage skillet
- The staff have over estimated their ability to produce a egg/sausage skillet,
- They are simply short staffed at the moment,
- They have malfunctioning equipment at the moment
- I have unrealistic expectations about how long it takes it make an egg/sausage skillet.
In the last case, to show that I have unreasonable expectations would depend on showing how long it really takes. That would require evidence of the empirical kind. In this case I would have a hypothesis (presumption as a claim) that would be subject to falsifiability
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability). It would be up to the restaurant to accept my claim on its face or request that I prove my claim that "it is taking too long". In the (unlikely) case that I can't prove my claim, I would have to change my hypothesis about how long it should take, or in the case that I choose not to, then I should walk out and try another restaurant.
In the case that I walk into the kitchen and do it myself in less time, then I have validated my hypothesis (presumption as claim), in other words proved my point. My hypothesis has survived the process of falsifiability until challenged again. Each time it survives falisifiability, and through each reiteration of the process of falsifiability it inductively comes closer to a theory and closer still to a presumed truth (presumption), strong enough to use as a premise in an argument to support a claim (such as 'it is taking too long'). In this case we know that the preponderance of prior evidence justifies the presumption that 'it is taking too long'. Of course, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, this is common sense, AKA the scientific method, and this is how the world increases its cumulative store of knowledge, building one presumption at a time.

References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_scientific_method

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Bibliography

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This is the bibliography for this site, not all inclusive.


To start with, all the books I've read throughout my life, but these are the most relevant.

Informal Logic
- Place of emotion in argument, Douglas Walton
- Argumentation Schemes for Presumptive Reasoning, Douglas Walton
- The New Dialectic: Conversational Contexts of Argument, Douglas Walton
- Argument Structure: A Pragmatic Theory, Douglas Walton
- Commitment in Dialogue: Basic Concepts of Interpersonal Reasoning, Douglas Walton
- One-Sided Arguments: A Dialectical Analysis of Bias, Douglas Walton
- Arguments from Ignorance, Douglas Walton
- Appeal to Expert Opinion: Arguments from Authority, Douglas Walton
- Appeal to Pity: Argumentum Ad Misericordiam, Douglas Walton
- Informal Logic: A Handbook for Critical Argument, Douglas Walton
- A Rulebook for Arguments by Weston, Anthony
- A Systematic Theory of Argumentation: The pragma-dialectical approach...
- Argumentation: Analysis, Evaluation by van Eemeren, Frans H...
- Attacking Faulty Reasoning: A Practical Guide to Fallacy-Free Arguments...
- Logical Self-Defense by Johnson, Ralph H.; Blair, J. Anthony
- The Official LSAT SuperPrep by Law School Admission Council
- Barrons PassKey to the LSAT
- LSAT logic in Everyday life, podcast
- Fundamentals of Critical argumentation, Doulas Walton
- The Uses of Argument, Stephen Toulman
- The New Rhetoric: A Treatise on Argumentation
- Introduction to Logic (11th Edition) by Copi, Irving M.; Cohen...
- Argumentation: Study of Effective Reasoning, David Zarefsky

Critical Thinking
- Argumentation and Critical Decision Making (5th Edition) by Rieke, Richard D...
- Crimes Against Logic by Jamie Whyte
- How to Think About Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age by Schick...
- Innumeracy : Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Social Consequences (Vintage...
- Logic and Contemporary Rhetoric: The Use of Reason in Everyday Life
- The Art of Deception: An Introduction to Critical Thinking
- Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science (Popular Science) by...
- Bad Medicine : Misconceptions and Misuses Revealed, from Distance Healing to...
- Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other...
- A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market by Paulos, John Allen
- A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper by Paulos, John Allen
- Historians' Fallacies : Toward a Logic of Historical Thought by...
- How to Lie With Statistics by Huff, Darrell; Geis, Irving
- The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark by Carl...
- The Power of Logical Thinking: Easy Lessons in the Art of Reasoning...and Hard
- It Ain't Necessarily So : How Media Make and Unmake the Scientific Picture of...
- Mysterious Realms: Probing Paranormal, Historical, and Forensic Enigmas...
- Skeptics Guide to the Universe, podcast

Science
- Harvard Medical School Guide to Achieving Optimal Memory (Harvard Medical...
- Physics the Easy Way (Easy Way Series) by Lehrman, Robert L.
- The Science Book, edited by Peter Tallack
- Nature, podcast
- The Naked Scientists, podcast
- Quirks and Quarks, podcast
- New Scientist, podcast
- Evolution 101, podcast
- Cosmos, Carl Sagan
- Stephen Hawkings Universe, Stephen Hawking
- Elegant Universe, Brian Greene
- Universe in a Nutshell, Stephen Hawking
- ABC's of Relativity, Bertrand Russell

Debate
- Argumentation and Debate: Critical Thinking for Reasoned Decision Making...
- The Debater's Guide by Ericson, Jon M.; Murphy, James J.
- Debate Course, University of Vermont

Persuasion
- Influence: Science and Practice (4th Edition) by Cialdini, Robert
- Persuasion: Theory and Research (Current Communication) by O'Keefe, Daniel J.

Philosophy
- Joseph Campbell and the Power of Myth [DVD] (2001) George Lucas; Bill Moyers...
- Beyond Good And Evil by Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
- Fundamental Principles of the Metaphysic of Morals by Immanuel Kant
- Philosophy for Pleasure,
- Essays of Robert Ingersoll
- Why I am Not a Christian, Bertrand Russell
- Religion and Science, Bertrand Russell
- The Philosophers Zone podcast, Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Psychology
- Conquering Deception by Nance, Jef
- The psychology of transcendence by Neher, Andrew
- How We Know What Isn't So by Gilovich, Thomas
- General Psychology semester
- Social Psychology semester
- Self and Society,
- All in The Mind podcast, Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Numeracy
- Speed Mathematics: Secret Skills for Quick Calculation
- Precalculus Mathematics in a Nutshell: Geometry, Algebra, Trigonometry
- How to Calculate Quickly
- Math Magic

Biblical Criticism
- The Holy Bible, different versions
- Evidence that Demands a Verdict Vol. 1, Josh McDowell
- Evidence that Demands a Verdict Vol. 2, Josh McDowell
- More Than A Carpenter, Josh McDowell
- Biblical Errancy: A Reference Guide
- Folklore in the Old Testament by Frazer, James George
- Gospel Fictions by Helms, Randel
- Holy Writ as Oral Lit : The Bible as Folklore by Dundes, Alan
- The Bible Unearthed: Archaeology's New Vision of Ancient Israel and the Origin
- The Bible with Sources Revealed by Friedman, Richard E.
- The Early History of God: Yahweh and the Other Deities in Ancient Israel
- The Historical Jesus & the Mythical Christ by Massey, Gerald
- The Secret Origins of the Bible
- Looking for a Miracle: Weeping Icons, Relics, Stigmata, Visions & Healing Cures
- Old Testament Parallels (Fully Expanded and Revised) by Matthews...
- History Of God : The 4000-Year Quest of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam by...
- Don't Know Much About Mythology, Kenneth C. Davis
- Letter to a Christian Nation, Sam Harris
- The Bible Geek podcast, Robert Price

Diversions
- Lexicon of Intentionally Ambiguous Recommendations by Thornton, Robert J.
- Test Your IQ
- The Colossal Book of Short Puzzles and Problems
- The Moscow Puzzles : 359 Mathematical Recreations (Math & Logic Puzzles)
- How to Solve IQ Puzzles
- Match Wits With Mensa: The Complete Quiz Book (Mensa Genius Quiz)

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The Baloney Detection Kit is not enough

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This ‘Critical Thinking movement’ that I hear people talk about is too shallow for me to be comfortable with. Critical thinking is a discipline and a lifestyle choice. I choose to do it, but most of the people I know do not and call me weird, but they tell me that I’m ‘really smart’ and trust my judgment.

my short list:

After studying critical thinking on my own intensely the last two years, for me the most ‘bang for the buck’ came out of studying Informal Logic, Persuasion theories, Debate tactics, Toulmans rationale and model of argumentation, argumentation schemes and presumptive reasoning (Douglas Waltons book), Theories of Dialectics and pragmatism, Social Psychology and scientific studies of motivation and altruism, comparative religion studies and introspection.

my long list:

I think that people learn by observation. We learn how to communicate by reading, watching T.V., teachers, parents, friends, advertisements and politicians. We learn a lot of poor reasoning skills this way. I think everyone learns differently but here is what works for me as I do it on my own.

It is organized according to level of effort.

- Redefine ‘argument’ for yourself to exclude the word ‘quarrel’. Decide you will not ‘quarrel’ again.

- Eat right, get plenty of rest, because above all the brain is a bag of chemicals.

- Pay attention, listen, read carefully

- Look for oversimplification, this covers a lot of ground in argumentation schemes.

- Look for presumptions, or unexpressed premises that the statement depends on

- Look for generalizations

- Look for extremes

- Use the scientific method, chances are we learned it in high school.

- look for the conclusion and find the premises in a paragraph, we learned this in high school too.

- Learn the basics of reasoning, DATA, PREMISE, WARRANT, BACKING, CONCLUSION

- learn to use ockhams razor

- learn to expect extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims.

- Listen to or watch science shows

- Pick up a copy of the skeptical inquirer, or skeptic magazine

- Listen to skeptical podcasts or tv shows ( I half-heartedly recommend Penn and Tellers Bullsh**)

- Pick up an LSAT test prep book that has the answers and an analysis of the answers and do it.

- Read Informal Logic books or High School Debate strategy books (for the sections on reasoning and persuasion). Reading creates mental shortcuts to memory. Be careful about “critical thinking” books or books about ‘Fallacies’. I’ve found ‘critical thinking’ and ‘fallacy’ books and websites to misrepresent Argumentation Schemes as typically being fallacious. The truth about ‘fallacies’ didn’t sink in until I read books by van Eemeren and Grootendorst, Douglas Walton and the team of Johnson and Blair. I highly recommend Douglas Walton.

Once you have learned the basics, then start applying them.

- Pick something easy and analyze Bill O’Reilly interviews on TV or in transcripts from Fox news website.

- look for loaded language

- look for Bias

- Look for the ‘dependencies’ which are presumptions and unexpressed premises in O’Reilly and Op-Ed pieces from Townhall.com, articles picked by butterfliesandwheels.com or
Church sermons and religious apologetics but be careful, because with a little introspection and biblical criticism, you might find yourself deconverted.

- Eavesdrop and listen to discussions around you.

- Watch news interviews to help you learn how to ask critical questions

- learn to use ‘I’ statements and avoid ‘you’ statements when you…

- learn to ask critical questions. Remembering the right question at the right time has a lot to do with the mental shortcuts you created in the process of learning.

- try to pick your battles, you may have to learn to keep your mouth shut.

- Take a psychology course and a social psychology course

- Start a blog anonymously and type in what you think or keep a diary. Go back and read it after a few days to critique yourself.

- be careful what you say because the more people know you and trust your judgement, the less they doubt you. Peoples trust is invaluable.

- do a variety of logic puzzles or games. They can be found at the bookstore in the magazine sections.

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Elaboration Likelihood Model theory of persuasion

this is a stub for a Theory of persuasion.

References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elaboration-likelihood_model

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Non-Intelligent Design

This is a growing list of some questionable design decisions if made by 'the creator'.

- sun gives us cancer
- appendix
- sex organs same as feces organs
- male nipples

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Busted Myths

This a growing list of ideas that were held to be true but were
consequently discovered to be false. This is to show that just because
most people believe something, doesn't mean its true.

- Flat earth
- Sea monsters
- Bloodletting
- Leeching
- Earth at the center of the universe
- Heavier bodies fall faster than light ones
- The world was circled by a Dome that kept water out.
- Slavery justified by divine right
- The stars were lights in the sky put there by god
- Gods lived in the mountains, then clouds, then just out of sight of telescopes, now they live in the supernatural realm.
- Special creation (Adam and Eve etc)
- Race (blacks, whites, etc)
- Smoking

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